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Indicator Overview

The 2-Year MA Multiplier is a bitcoin chart intended to be used as a long term investment tool.

It highlights periods where buying or selling Bitcoin during those times would have produced outsized returns.

To do this, it uses a moving average (MA) line, the 2yr MA, and also a multiplication of that moving average line. 2yr MA x5 is the default, but you can also set lower multiples using the chart legend.

Note: the multiplication is of the price values of the 2yr moving average, not of its time period.

Historically, accumulating bitcoin when price drops below the 2yr MA (green line) has proven to be an astute time to purchase Bitcoin. Selling Bitcoin when price approaches the 2yr MA x 5 (red line) has historically proven to be effective for taking profit.

Why This Happens

As Bitcoin is adopted, it moves through market cycles. These are created by periods where market participants are over-excited causing the price to over-extend, and periods where they are overly pessimistic where the price over-contracts. Identifying and understanding these periods can be beneficial to the long term investor.

This tool is a simple and effective way to highlight those periods.

Bitcoin Price Prediction Using This Tool

The Bitcoin Investor Tool can be used to indicate whether the price of Bitcoin today is at levels that are historically low (in the green zone) or high (in the red zone) or neutral (between the green and red zones). So it is a useful tool for Bitcoin price prediction as investors can understand on a historically relative basis whether $BTC is currently over or undervalued. This can be helpful when forecasting the price of Bitcoin.

Created By

Philip Swift

Date Created

July 2017

Fall Further Down The Rabbit Hole

Philip Swift on Twitter

Similar Live Charts That You May Find Useful

The Bitcoin Investor Tool attempts to identify when the market is overly excited or overly fearful. When price breaks up into the red band it suggests that the market is, generally speaking, very excited about Bitcoin which is pushing the price up to levels that may be unsustainable. The inverse is true, when price drops into the green zone the market is generally fearful and/or apathetic about Bitcoin and its price. It does this at a macro, high time frame level.

Another tool that does this but on lower time frames is the Fear and Greed Index. It uses a different approach but attempts to identify a similar thing, extremes in market sentiment. You can view it here.

For an on-chain tool that looks at the very extremes of market sentiment, take a look at MVRV Z-Score.

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What Is the Bitcoin Power Law Chart?

The Bitcoin Power Law Chart is a long-term price model suggesting that Bitcoin’s price follows a power law relationship with time, rather than linear or exponential growth.

The model uses logarithmic regression to estimate a long-term fair value trend, along with upper and lower price bounds.

How Is the Bitcoin Power Law Chart Calculated?

The Bitcoin Power Law Chart is built using logarithmic regression on Bitcoin’s historical price data. Here’s how it works:

Logarithmic Scale: The model plots Bitcoin’s price history on a log-log scale (both time and price axes use logarithms). This helps reveal long-term growth trends while smoothing out extreme volatility.
Power Law Regression: A power function of the form P(t)=a⋅tb is applied, where:

P(t) is Bitcoin’s price at time t
a and b are constants determined by historical data
t represents time since Bitcoin’s inception (often measured in days or years)

Price Bands: The model includes upper and lower bounds, forming a price range within which Bitcoin’s price historically fluctuates. These bands help identify overbought and oversold conditions relative to the long-term trend.

How Reliable is the Bitcoin Power Law?

Assumes Bitcoin Will Keep Growing – The model expects Bitcoin to follow past trends, but future adoption may slow or face unexpected challenges.
Ignores Market and Economic Events – It doesn’t account for regulations, macroeconomic shifts, or major technological changes that could impact Bitcoin’s price.
Based on Past Data (Overfitting Risk) – Since it relies entirely on historical price patterns, it may not adapt if Bitcoin’s growth slows or changes.
No Guaranteed Price Boundaries – Bitcoin’s price can break below or above the model’s predicted range, making it unreliable as a strict forecasting tool.
Doesn’t Factor in Bitcoin’s Supply Schedule – Unlike Stock-to-Flow, this model ignores key supply-side factors like halvings and miner behavior.
Can Create False Confidence – Investors may wrongly assume Bitcoin will always follow the model, leading to poor risk management and investment decisions.

For these reasons, caution is advised with such a model. Investors can consider using additional data to support this chart that includes actual market participant behavior, such as the onchain data shown elsewhere on the platform.

Bitcoin Power Law vs Other Bitcoin Price Models

The Bitcoin Power Law is one of several long-term frameworks investors use to assess Bitcoin’s price behaviour over time. Each model approaches valuation from a different perspective, and none should be used in isolation.

Bitcoin Power Law

The Bitcoin Power Law models Bitcoin’s price as a mathematical function of time, using logarithmic regression to identify a long-term growth trend along with upper and lower bounds. It is best suited for understanding Bitcoin’s structural price trajectory across multiple market cycles rather than short-term price movements.

Stock-to-Flow

Stock-to-Flow is a supply-based model that attempts to value Bitcoin based on its scarcity, measured as the ratio of existing supply to new issuance. While influential during earlier market cycles, many investors now view Stock-to-Flow as less reliable following recent deviations from its projected price path. You can explore this approach further on our Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow chart.

Moving Averages (200WMA)

Long-term moving averages such as the 200-week moving average focus on historical price smoothing rather than explicit valuation. These indicators are often used to identify long-term support levels and broad trend direction. Many investors compare moving averages alongside models like the Bitcoin Power Law to assess whether price is extended above or below long-run norms.

On-Chain Valuation Models

On-chain models use blockchain data such as realised value, coin age, and investor behaviour to estimate fair value and market extremes. Examples include MVRV-based metrics and cycle indicators. These models are often most effective when combined with longer-term frameworks like the Bitcoin Power Law to provide behavioural context.

For a broader view of long-term Bitcoin price prediction models, see our Bitcoin Price Prediction & Forecast Models page, which brings together multiple on-chain valuation tools in one chart.

In practice, experienced investors tend to use the Bitcoin Power Law as a high-level structural reference, while relying on on-chain data and market indicators for timing and risk management.

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Indicator Overview

The Pi Cycle Top and Bottom Oscillator is an adaptation of the original Pi Cycle Top chart. It compares the 111-Day Moving Average circle and the 2 * 350-Day Moving Average circle of Bitcoin’s Price. These two moving averages were selected as 350 / 111 = 3.153; An approximation of the important mathematical number Pi.

When the 111-Day Moving Average circle reaches the 2 * 350-Day Moving Average circle, it indicates that the market is becoming overheated. That is because the mid time frame momentum reference of the 111-Day Moving Average has caught up with the long timeframe momentum reference of the 2 * 350-Day Moving Average.

Historically this has occurred within 3 days of the very top of each market cycle.

When the 111 Day Moving Average circle falls back beneath the 2 * 350 Day Moving Average circle, it indicates that the market momentum of that cycle is significantly cooling down. The oscillator drops down into the lower green band shown where the 111 Day Moving Average is moving at a 75% discount relative to the 2 * 350 Day Moving Average.

Historically, this has highlighted broad areas of bear market lows.

It is also worth noting that this indicator has worked during Bitcoin's adoption growth phase, the first 15 years or so of Bitcoin's life. With the launch of Bitcoin ETF's and Bitcoin's increased integration into the global financial system, this indicator may cease to be relevant at some point in this new market structure.2a:["$","$L37",null,{"section":"charts","slug":"bitcoin-investor-tool","staticChartMeta":{"id":1,"title":"Bitcoin: Bitcoin Investor Tool: 2-Year MA Multiplier","subtitle":"Identifies periods of oversold and overbought conditions for BTC using its 2-year moving average","about":"$38","logo":"https://storage.googleapis.com/lookintobitcoin/static/img/logo/bitcoin_logo.ed0dc6da56cc.png","related_charts":[{"id":120,"title":"Bitcoin: Power Law","slug":"bitcoin-power-law","section":"charts","category":"Market Cycle","subtitle":"Bitcoin linear regression model","about":"$39","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/lookintobitcoin/media/chart-featured/2026/03/11/89.jpg"},{"id":103,"title":"Bitcoin: Pi Cycle Top & Bottom Indicator","slug":"pi-cycle-top-bottom-indicator","section":"charts","category":"Market Cycle","subtitle":"Pi Cycle Top and Bottom Indicator.","about":"$3a","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/lookintobitcoin/media/chart-featured/2026/03/11/73.jpg"},{"id":84,"title":"Bitcoin: Bitcoin Cycle Master","slug":"bitcoin-cycle-master","section":"charts","category":"Market Cycle","subtitle":"A combination of on-chain metrics including Coin Value Days Destroyed and Terminal Price.","about":"

Indicator Overview

\r\n\r\n

Bitcoin Cycle Master is a combination of on-chain metrics including Coin Value Days Destroyed and Terminal Price. They are able to identify where Bitcoin price is valued relatively within its cycles. Historically those cycles have been approximately every 4 years and correlate with Bitcoin Halving events (see our Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle guide for the full breakdown). There is no guarantee that will continue to be the case in the future, and the metrics that make up Bitcoin Cycle Master track actual economic behavior on the Bitcoin blockchain.\r\n\r\n

Bitcoin Cycle Master can identify periods of increased risk when transaction behavior on-chain is indicative of major cycle highs. It also identifies areas of value opportunity where on-chain transaction behavior signals major cycle lows.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/lookintobitcoin/media/chart-featured/2026/03/11/56.jpg"}]}}]

Bitcoin: Bitcoin Investor Tool: 2-Year MA Multiplier

About Bitcoin: Bitcoin Investor Tool: 2-Year MA Multiplier

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