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Indicator Overview

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically been effective in picking out the timing of market cycle highs within 3 days.

It uses the 111 day moving average (111DMA) and a newly created multiple of the 350 day moving average, the 350DMA x 2.

Note: The multiple is of the price values of the 350DMA, not the number of days.

For the past three market cycles, when the 111DMA moves up and crosses the 350DMA x 2 we see that it coincides with the price of Bitcoin peaking.

It is also interesting to note that 350 / 111 is 3.153, which is very close to Pi = 3.142. In fact, it is the closest we can get to Pi when dividing 350 by another whole number.

It once again demonstrates the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action over long time frames. However, in this instance, it does so with a high degree of accuracy over Bitcoin's adoption phase of growth.

Bitcoin Price Prediction Using This Tool

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator forecasts the cycle top of Bitcoin’s market cycles. It attempts to predict the point where Bitcoin price will peak before pulling back. It does this on major high time frames and has picked the absolute tops of Bitcoin’s major price moves throughout most of its history.

How It Can Be Used

Pi Cycle Top is useful to indicate when the market is very overheated. So overheated that the shorter-term moving average, which is the 111-day moving average, has reached an x2 multiple of the 350-day moving average. Historically, it has proved advantageous to sell Bitcoin around this time in Bitcoin's price cycles.

It is also worth noting that this indicator has worked during Bitcoin's adoption growth phase, the first 15 years or so of Bitcoin's life. With the launch of Bitcoin ETF's and Bitcoin's increased integration into the global financial system, this indicator may cease to be relevant in this new market structure.

Created By

Philip Swift

Date Created

April 2019

Fall Further Down The Rabbit Hole

The Golden Ratio Multiplier Article (which includes a section on the Pi Cycle Top Indicator)

Similar Live Charts That You May Find Useful

Other live charts that attempt to predict the major highs in Bitcoin price are the MVRV Z-score and RHODL Ratio indicators which are also free to view on this site.

Video Explainer

Click me to watch video!

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Note: Clicking the labels on the key above can turn the chart lines on and off.

Indicator Overview

The Golden Ratio Multiplier is a Bitcoin chart that explores Bitcoin's adoption curve and market cycles to understand how price may behave on medium to long-term time frames.

To do this, it uses multiples of the 350-day moving average (350DMA) of Bitcoin's price to identify areas of potential resistance to price movements. Note: multiples are of the 350DMA's price values rather than its number of days.

The multiples reference the Golden Ratio (1.6) and the Fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21). These are important mathematical numbers.

These specific multiplications of the 350DMA have been very effective over time at picking out intracycle highs for Bitcoin price and also the major market cycle highs.

As Bitcoin becomes adopted over time, its market cycle highs hit decreasing Fibonacci sequence multiples of the 350DMA. This is because Bitcoin's explosive growth on a logarithmic scale is slowing over time. As its market cap increases, it becomes harder for the same log-scale growth rates to continue.

This indicator was created in April 2019. At that point, the BTC price had worked through the Fibonacci numbers from x21 to x5. The indicator then continued to work after that time, all the way to completion from the x5, to the x3, x2, and x1.6 multiples. Each Fibonacci multiple marked a significant resistance for BTC each time BTC price reached it. This was a remarkable achievement and shows how Bitcoin in its adoption phase followed the mathematical sequence of Fibonacci.

The Golden Ratio Multiplier was an effective tool because it was able to demonstrate when the market was likely overstretched within the context of Bitcoin's adoption curve growth and market cycles.

For more information on the indicator see the link below.

Will It Work Beyond Adoption?

This indicator, along with the Pi Cycle Top indicator, was designed to work in Bitcoin’s early adoption phase before it reached mainstream status. That adoption phase can be seen in the price chart as a broad arc of price growth over time on a logarithmic scale. Having tapped all the required fib level multiples, the indicator completed its task. Interestingly, this adoption phase spanned from $0 to $100,000. It is therefore our view that Bitcoin has completed its adoption growth according to this indicator, and a new growth phase will begin.

Bitcoin Price Prediction Using This Tool

The x5, x3, x2, x1.6 fib levels forecasted where there may be major resistance for Bitcoin price when it reached them. They did indeed prove to be a handy Bitcoin price prediction tool and indicator of where the smart investor chose to manage their risk.

Created By

Philip Swift

Date Created

April 2019

Fall Further Down The Rabbit Hole

The Golden Ratio Multiplier Medium Article

Similar Live Charts That You May Find Useful

The Golden Ratio Multiplier was built alongside the Pi Cycle Top Indicator which uses a similar methodology. .

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Indicator Overview

Number of days in Bitcoin's traded history where holding Bitcoin has been profitable relative to today's price.

This chart highlights the aggressive growth of Bitcoin's adoption curve over time, which is reflected in its price. Because supply is limited, as demand grows price moves up.

For investors, it also demonstrates the importance of understanding the market cycles of Bitcoin to avoid buying market cycle tops. The drawdowns from cycle tops can last a long time, around 2-3 years in previous cycles. For the full picture of how these cycles work, see our Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle guide.

Bitcoin Price Prediction Using This Tool

This indicator demonstrates how Bitcoin price has accelerated over its lifetime as it becomes adopted by more and more people around the world. For people trying to understand where the price of Bitcoin may go in the future and try and predict the price of Bitcoin, it pays to understand whether adoption and interest is likely to increase further over time.

This tool shows how people who have simply held Bitcoin on a long enough time horizon have been rewarded by Bitcoins adoption over time.

Created By

@Rhythmtrader

Date Created

August 2019

Fall Further Down The Rabbit Hole

Follow @Rhythmtrader on Twitter.

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Key Takeaways

This chart is the most up-to-date version of the Rainbow chart available online, with a calculation from October 2023. Price updates every day.

This version of the Bitcoin Rainbow chart is a mathematically calculated logarithmic growth curve. It does not just use upper and lower historical price line fitting.

People use the charts Rainbow colored bands to determine whether Bitcoin price is currently under or overvalued.

The Rainbow chart is a meme chart. It is not investment advice!

What Is The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Indicator?

The Rainbow price chart is a long-term valuation tool for Bitcoin. It uses a logarithmic growth curve to forecast the potential future price direction of Bitcoin.

It overlays rainbow color bands on top of the logarithmic growth curve channel to highlight market sentiment at each rainbow color stage as Bitcoin price moves through it. Therefore indicating potential opportunities for the Bitcoin investor using the chart.

Is the Bitcoin Rainbow chart accurate?

Yes, it is a correct calculation of a logarithmic growth curve and captures historical long-term price movements within a channel formed around the log growth curve.

However, that does not mean that Bitcoin price has to continue to follow that same channel in the future.

Despite this, many people are watching this chart to see if it continues to follow it over time as Bitcoin price moves into a new market cycle.

How is the Bitcoin rainbow chart constructed?

This is the most up-to-date version of the BTC Rainbow chart available on the internet.

It was generated in October 2023 so uses recent price data as well as historical data. This is the latest Bitcoin Rainbow Chart 2023.

As a result, it offers the most accurate outlook for the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart and $BTC price moving through it.

The previous version of the live Bitcoin rainbow chart can be found here.

How to Interpret The Rainbow Chart

Because Bitcoin is still a relatively young asset class, its price movements are highly volatile. Over time as Bitcoin is adopted, there is a general upward price movement but within that trend, there are volatile market cycles.

During the market cycles, the price of Bitcoin can increase parabolically and also drop very quickly.

The live BTC rainbow chart highlights where BTC price is in those cycles and provides a viewpoint on investor strategy.

circle circle circle circle Warmer upper colors of the rainbow chart show when the market is likely overheated. Such periods have historically proven to be good times for the strategic investor to begin taking some profits.

circle circle circle circle Cooler colors indicate periods where overall market sentiment is typically depressed and many investors become uninterested in Bitcoin. The Rainbow chart highlights that these periods are typically excellent times for the strategic investor to accumulate more Bitcoin.

This live Bitcoin Rainbow chart updates every 24 hours with the latest daily close price live, and will always be available to view on this page for free. Look Into Bitcoin subscribers can also view the chart close to real-time on hourly timeframes.

Important points to remember about the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart and investing

It uses historical price data as its input to project the direction of the rainbow bands.
It does not use any blockchain data to try and identify what different market participants are doing in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
It is a meme chart, meant to be used for fun and not taken too seriously.
As with all charts and information on this site, it is not investment advice.

Fall Further Down The Rabbit Hole

The first example of a logarithmic regression curve for Bitcoin was created by Bitcoin Talk user trolololo. This is the original chart, which shows how $BTC price could potentially evolve over time using log growth regression analysis:

You can check out this link if you would like to view the original discussions and idea-sharing around the Bitcoin logarithmic growth channel that initially took place back in 2014 when the price of 1 Bitcoin was just $385.

You can also view a standard logarithmic chart growth curve on the Logarithmic Growth Curve Live Chart page for Bitcoin.

Explore more Bitcoin Price Predictions and forecasts.

Video Explainer

Click me to watch video!

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Bitcoin: Pi Cycle Top Indicator

About Bitcoin: Pi Cycle Top Indicator

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